I compared some of my tech stock are doing compared to indices and I wanted to see a contango $USO play. Every trader has to ask the question about stock picks and whether they are beating the market or not.
It's amazing how close the DJI, Nasdaq, MSFT, AAPL, and GOOG are tracking each other. A 200 day perf chart from stockcharts.com is really interesting.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf.html?GOOG,MSFT,AAPL,COMP,DJIA
Net, MSFT has outperformed and AAPL has underperformed, but there's only about a 12% difference (MSFT - 33%, AAPL - 45%) since April 29th 2008. I'm not sure if I'm actually getting value for my time on buy and hold techs.
Next I looked at some oil and Contango related equities, notably OIL, USO, DXO (2x oil long), SEA, USL, DIG. I picked SEA because it is an ETF on tankers. I think there's a way play oil that assumes the further out futures price is higher than the current future price and will continue to drop.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf.html?USO,DXO,SEA,OIL,USL,DIG
What an astounding chart. DXO got as low as -90% since Aug 22nd. USO and OIL are extremely tightly correlated and look to still be dropping. It also shows USL has done better than USO/OIL. These prove @toddsullivans point that USO is getting hurt badly by contango and USL is a better bet. SEA has risen 15% off it's november low. DXO has actually risen a bit compared to OIL and USO off the late december lows despite OIL and USO continuing to drop a bit. Who would have thought a double long would go up when OIL and USO are dropping? It also looks like DIG has been flat since the huge drop climaxing in mid Oct 2008 and has tracked USO since early Dec. Finally, it looks like SEA has outperformed USL by 15% since SEA's bottom in mid-Nov.
As I chatted with @toddsullivan, it looks like the contango play I want is SEA, USL, DXO, or shorting OIL or USO. I think I'll probably go with $SEA.
It's amazing how close the DJI, Nasdaq, MSFT, AAPL, and GOOG are tracking each other. A 200 day perf chart from stockcharts.com is really interesting.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf.html?GOOG,MSFT,AAPL,COMP,DJIA
Net, MSFT has outperformed and AAPL has underperformed, but there's only about a 12% difference (MSFT - 33%, AAPL - 45%) since April 29th 2008. I'm not sure if I'm actually getting value for my time on buy and hold techs.
Next I looked at some oil and Contango related equities, notably OIL, USO, DXO (2x oil long), SEA, USL, DIG. I picked SEA because it is an ETF on tankers. I think there's a way play oil that assumes the further out futures price is higher than the current future price and will continue to drop.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf.html?USO,DXO,SEA,OIL,USL,DIG
What an astounding chart. DXO got as low as -90% since Aug 22nd. USO and OIL are extremely tightly correlated and look to still be dropping. It also shows USL has done better than USO/OIL. These prove @toddsullivans point that USO is getting hurt badly by contango and USL is a better bet. SEA has risen 15% off it's november low. DXO has actually risen a bit compared to OIL and USO off the late december lows despite OIL and USO continuing to drop a bit. Who would have thought a double long would go up when OIL and USO are dropping? It also looks like DIG has been flat since the huge drop climaxing in mid Oct 2008 and has tracked USO since early Dec. Finally, it looks like SEA has outperformed USL by 15% since SEA's bottom in mid-Nov.
As I chatted with @toddsullivan, it looks like the contango play I want is SEA, USL, DXO, or shorting OIL or USO. I think I'll probably go with $SEA.
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